Major Off Year Elections- 2009

With the off-year election day of this year about 11 days away, I figure it's time to look over some of the more media-covered races that may serve as tea-leaves to be read for next year's midterm elections. The biggest news-getters are the gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey, the Special Election in New York's 23rd Congressional District, and the Mayoral Election in New York City. Here is my quick overview of these races a little less than two weeks out.

Virginia-- A few posts ago I went over the status of Virginia, a traditionally Republican-leaning state that Democrats had made major gains in recent years in, culminating in 2008's sweep of an open Senate seat, two Congressional district pick-ups, and Obama's carrying the State by six points. This year, it appears that the traditional habit of Virginians electing a governor not of the sitting President's party is holding true. I'd said I thought the Democrats should consider themselves lucky to lose by less than 5 percentage points in this election. Judging by the most recent polls, it appears that Creigh Deeds should consider himself fortunate to avoid a true hell-stomping blowout. Republican Bob McDonnell's campaign, with its focus on quality of life issues and administrative competence has been referenced by some as a clear example for how conservative candidates should market themselves. Even the issues over his graduate school thesis were deftly handled in an open press conference, after a September narrowing of the polls McDonnell has again widened his lead to somewhere between 7 and 19 points (RealClearPolitics average is roughly a ten-percent margin). If the lead holds and the Republicans sweep the down ballot elections-- for Attorney General for example-- as they appear to be heading for, then this could give the GOP a shot in the arm to reclaim some major lost territory in swing state America come 2010. To have any realistic chance of unseating Obama in 2012, Virginia is a state the Republicans NEED to win back.

New Jersey-- What can be said? Democrat John Corzine (D) is not well liked in his position as Governor. His approval ratings are anemic, his policies generally frowned upon, and he consistently as been unable to do better than say 40-43% in the polls. So in theory this should be a slam-dunk for a Republican takeover. Were this Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Colorado, or for God's sake even New Mexico, this might be true. But New Jersey, is a deep blue state whose previous elected Governor, Democrat Jim McGreevy resigned in probably one of the more public "emergence from the closet" moments in American history. Corzine, then serving as a freshman US Senator then proceeded to spend forty-million of his immense personal fortune to achieve election. Normally this might be seen as a handicap to the voting public, but with New Jersey's history of "interesting" local government in terms of corruption and vice, that his immense fortune is not ill-gotten is probably enough to cancel out any general resentment. This campaign season, his strategy has been similar, airing about the 3 times the ads as his Republican opponent US Attorney Chris Christie. Earlier this summer, Christie's lead was as much as 15 points, when an unpredictable factor entered the race, an unsually competent (and as most third-party candidates go) unusually sane Independent Chris Daggett, who has tapped into much of the anti-incumbency, anti-status quo vote. Polling as high as 20% in one poll, Daggett has probably peeled away voters from both major parties, but particularly seems to be hurting Christie, whose campaign is based on anti-corruption, anti-incumbency, and as an outsider. Therefore, a number of voters that otherwise would prefer Christie to Corzine are going for the even bigger outsider, the Independent. With Corzine's growing momentum, or at least a fair possibility that he'll eke out a narrow victory, President Obama has entered the fray to campaign for him, hoping to spur turnout, wheras before Beltway Democrats seemed prepared to write Corzine off, as they now appear to be doing to Deeds in Virginia. Recent polls generally have the race as either a Corzine or Christie advantage of 43 to 41 or so, with Daggett picking up the remainder. How will this race go? God knows, it depends on turnout I suppose and how many Daggett-leaning voterspull the lever (or is it push the button?) for him, or will they be disaffected enough to just stay home, or will they vote for Christie in the hope of at least getting Corzine out of office?

New York CD-23- This is a Republican held open seat in upstate New York up in Hudson river and mountain territory. Vacated by Rep. John McHugh when he was nominated as Secretary of the Army, this seat is about even in party registration. It has long elected Republican representatives (the GOP has dominated this seat since there's been a Republican Party), yet also went for Obama by a couple percentage points in 2008. The present special election is interesting however in that it is a legitimate 3-way race. A Democrat, a Republican, and a Conservative Party candidate are all within 5-10 points of one and other, the Democrat Bill Owens with a slight advantage. This seems to have resulted from the NY GOP nominating a moderate Republican, a very moderate Republican, a moderate Republican that's more liberal than most Democrats in Pennsylvania West of Philadelphia, or Ohio outside Dennis Kucinich's district. The GOP nominee Dede Scozzafaza would fit the GOP voters of New York State (what's left of them anyhow) in probably any area of New York outside the traditionally Republican Hudson Valley. However, it appears that here, the Republicans that have been elected McHugh are largely disatisfied, and hence the Conservative Party (which normally endorses the same candidate as the official NY GOP) has nominated a businessman name Doug Hoffman, a more conventional Republican candidate. As a result, the GOP and Independent vote has split between Hoffman and Scozzafaza, leaving open a strong possibiliy of an Owen's victory. This can certainly be argued to the GOP losing a seat they should have no trouble holding over an inter-party squabble. However, I also note that in a district Barack Obama carried, his party's man is carrying only about a third of the vote in an open election against a GOP assembley -woman and a self-proclaimed Conservative. If the surging (particularly in fundraising) Hoffman or the fading Scozzafaza wins, this seat is probably safe for the GOP for 2010. If Owens wins, its one more likely vote in the Democrat majority, but is probably unlikely to be held a year from now in 2010-- incumbency may have its perks, but a 34% or so vote total and a year of targeting will probably end poorly for Owens, I can easily see Hoffman proclaiming his immediate candidacy as a Republican for the 2010 rematch.

New York City Mayor--- Mayor Michael Bloomberg is running for a third term as an Independent with GOP support-- he generally swings between a true Independent and a Republican to the left of Arnold Schwarzenegger-- but is leading by over 10 points against the Democrat opposition. Bloomberg also happens to possess money, a tremendous amount of money, more money than Corzine, in fact more money than pretty much anyone in politics, but appears to not really need to spend much of his own-- he raises funds as well as the best of them-- he appears safe for a third term as New York's Mayor.

Local Politics Race-- Pittsburgh, PA Mayor-- Luke Ravenstahl, young Mayor Luke, the under-30 chief executive of a major city, has achieved the usual electoral status of reasonably-well liked Pittsburgh Mayors. A Democrat whose general election prospects are so safe that he can have the position as long as isn't indicted, elected for enough terms that the city tires of him and he is unseated in a primary or is aware that he will lose the primary. Generally as long as he continues to respirate and doesn't commit any obvious major crimes (murder, rape, arson, beastiality) he's safe as can be.