Thoughts on Last Night's Elections

Well the off-year elections have come to pass for this year, and across the media and political spectrum the pundits analyze the first major elections since last year's Presidential Race and try to divine some meaning for the future. Though obviously a year is an eternity in politics, if present trends hold there is some insight for the 2010 Mid-terms that will kick into high gear shortly (the first primaries for 2010 are in about 90 days in Illinois). So how about a discussion of last night's results:

Virginia: I said the Democrats would be lucky to avoid a true-blue hell-stomping McDonnell victory, and well, they were unlucky. The polls I'd seen averaged a 13 point McDonnell victory, his 18 point landslide clearly indicates that turnout intensity was (unsuprisingly) on the side of his Republican and Independent supporters (Independents went towards him by 2-to 1) This in and of itself, though impressive, is not particularly suprising given the historic voting trends in Virginia and the fact that Bob McDonnell is one hell of an effective campaigner. What was noteworthy was voting turnout factors and the fact that the Republican ticket swept the other two state officers by similar margins, as well as picking up about 6 or 7 (at last count) state legislative seats, particularly in Northern Virginia. After years of trending towards the Democrats, the gains they have made in Northern Virginia seem to have evaporated for the purpose of this election. Undoubtedly helped by a lack of turnout among under-30s and a reduction in African American turnout to 15 % from 20 % in the 2008 race, Virginia went quite red last night. The sheer scale of the GOP win in VA was notable to me (he even won Fairfax County). I was expecting McDonnell to win, and win heavily, but that the ticket did this well (the 2005 election saw a comparativley narrow Tim Kaine (D) win with a Republican Lieut Gov. and McDonnell narrowly as Attorney General over Deeds) indicates that Obama's Virginia coalition is not holding together for races when he is not on the ballot. If in 2010, one or more Democratic Congressional seats in the state go under-- which now looks very possible- then it will be clear that the Old Dominion is trending back to the Republican column (Obama won VA by 6 points in '08, if it is clearly back in play then likely so is Colorado and Nevada). As for the "what about the make-up of the electorate?" question-- my response is that if your base doesn't get out to vote unless you make them giddy with excitement, then your coalition will not sustain itself. The joke about the elderly always voting and their influence is no joke, of course they always vote, that's how you get people to listen to you!

New Jersey - In what may be a very big shot in the arm to the GOP, unseating an (admittedly unpopular) incumbent in a very blue state is a tonic that hasn't happened since 2004. In fact, this is probably the most unlikely GOP gain since seizing the top offices in Maryland for one term in 2002 (the eccentric election patterns in New England don't count-- the citizens of Vermont elect a Republican to Governor, throw up their hats whenever Bernie Sanders runs for anything, and require no permit whatsoever to tote concealed firearms throughout the state). Chris Christie defeated Governor and ex-Senator Jon Corzine 49% to 44 % with Chris Daggett fading back to about 7 percent of the vote. Christie was outspent by Corzine and his fortune about 3 to 1 and also managed to outperform the polls by a point or two. This race largely revolved around the local issues of New Jersey and a general statewide resentment of Corzine. Still, I think a GOP win in a state the President won by about 16 points and in which he personally appeared alongside the incumbent at campaign rallies is somewhat embarrassing to the White House-- to say nothing of how embarrassing it must be for Corzine, who's political career is likely over. This is a wider margin of victory than Christie Todd Whitman had in the 1990s, if not exactly in play for future Presidential Elections, this at least implied Republicans could win state-wide races again in New Jersey, perhaps at the Senate level at some point. GOP gains in the state legislature appear to be only one or two seats, but it still may be a worrying sign for 2010 among moderate democrats in marginal seats-- if the assumed moribund-outside-the-South Republican party can reach up into New Jersey-- they could easily be unseated if the voters turn against them.

New York Mayor - So Michael Bloomberg appears to have achieved a rarity in major electoral politics, a very large number of the people approving of his job performance voted against him, I presume on reasons of third-term principle. He held a near 70 percent approval rating and was re-elected to his third term by only about 51% of the vote, or about a 5 point margin. He appears to have spent a tremendous amount of money on this election and it seems the message is that no matter how much they may like you, to New Yorkers, changing the term limit law has its political price.

NY-23- I have no idea what message to draw from this race other than perhaps the unsuprising idea of - unless you have a very strong party structure, have primaries in disputed areas. The mishaps between the liberal-leaning Republican who was ousted by a Conservative and then in turn endorsed the conservative-leaning Democrat who edged a 49 to 45 percent victory (about 4,000 votes, smaller than the number picked up by the Republican that dropped out beforehand) over his grass-roots opponent. All this in a district-most of which has been represented by Republicans since the Civil War Era (even FDR never got ahold of this one) that went for Clinton and Chuckie Schumer in their Senate runs and Elliot "I'm a motherfucking steamroller!" Spitzer in his gubernatorial run and that will apparently be redistricted out of existence when New York loses a CD seat after the next census. All that and a bag of chips. If this district exists in 2010, it will likely be in play. The "split" between Conservatives and Moderates in the Republican Party in this area I think is overplayed, but clearly this likely cost them another Congressional Seat when they should be looking at pick-ups. It also adds one more likely blue-Dog to the disfunctional Democratic majority. Still, this race prevented a Democratic Golden Sombrero in competitive "newsworthy races" (if they'd lost California's CD 10 - the margin was about 10 points in a suburban San Francisco area- Southern and Midwestern democrats would've hit the nearest liquor cabinets so hard that Tip O'Neil would have sprang from the grave and expressed his approval. It also implied that the New York State Republican party is still not through in its time in the woodshed, which is truly remarkable considering the unpopularity of Governor David Patterson. If they are going to have any chance competing against the Democrat that likely unseats him in a primary or Senator Kirsten Gilibrand (Chuckie Schumer's polling suggests that if he calls for an A-Rod or Matsui 3-run homer, an Eli Manning pass completion, or a new Rodgers and Hammerstein Broadway Revival-then yea, verily, it shall be so) then NY GOP hopes are some combination of George Pataki and Rudy Guiliani, and not much else.

So where does that leave us for 2010--? Ideas, discussions, commentary?