Of Southern Democrats and Yankee Republicans

Well this will dovetail nicely with Stephen's post on the recent gburg alum running for Congress. And yes, as to that I agree-- Connecticut CD-4 is winnable as a Republican district in its makeup....
As for the nation...Exploding underpants and healthcare aside this post, I figured I'd discuss a bit of my perspective on the interesting trends of American politics-- particularly regional party strength. As the post suggests I'm discussing the often discussed reversal of party fortunes from their respective areas of origin-- and explaining that much of the shift is more recent than merely the Conservative- Liberal alignments of the major parties since the 1960s, particularly at the Congressional level.



My thoughts were prompted by two news feeds I read the past few weeks, Blue Dog Dem Congressman Parker Griffith of Alabama switched from the Democrats to become a Republican. That district (though in Alabama, a red state since Goldwater won it in 64) has not been represented by a Republican since the post-Reconstruction era. This is augmented by the bleeding out of GOP seats in upstate New York, and the other story I read -- that with GOP governors finishing up their terms in Vermont, RI, and Connecticut- it is possible that all of New England may have Democratic Governors for the first time in the modern party system next year. The almost total allignment of the Deep South and midland-South into a Republican bastion and Yankee New England into the Democratic party is not merely the extension of the drift since the early 1930s-- FDR never won either Vermont or Maine-- in fact no modern Democrat other than LBJ had won Vermont until Bill Clinton in 1992...the last time the GOP won Vermont in a Presidential election- 1988 was also the year Bernie Sanders was elected to Congress-- so how have the regions polarized in recent years---

The origins of the "Party of the Common Man" basics of the Democratic party stem from the midland South region of Andrew Jackson-. For many generations, Arkansas, most of Tennessee (Eastern TN interestingly enough has been a defiantly Republican stronghold since the Civil War-- when it was a Unionist region, the rest of the South basically caught up with it) , West Virginia (it voted for Dukakis in 1988), and Kentucky were Democrat dominated either nationally or locally. Since the 1970s, along with the Deep South regions-- these midland and Appalachian states have become more populist Republican in representation--- though a hearty number of Democrat senators and Congressman have remained. Tennessee maintains 5 Democratic Districts, Arkansas 3 Districts, WV 2. and Kentucky 2 Dem Districts. Retirements and a bad 2010 climate have caused several of the Tennessee districts to appear ripe for Republican pickups, along with at least one Arkansas and West Virginia. Also, Senator Blanche Lincoln is endangered to lose her seat. It would appear that the traditionally strong moderate Democrats that make up these states' Dem Reps (only Memphis's Congressional district is a majority minority seat, like most secure Dem. seats in the South) are going to start going the route of New England GOP Congressmen. The Democratic control of state legislatures in these states has also in recent years been on the wane--- This region, I largely believe, was more disposed to Democrats (the racial political divide of the South is less apparent in this region, outside of the Tennessee areas along the Mississippi, there isn't a large black population) because of Bill Clinton's origins in Arkansas and his appeal to the working/middle class whites of Appalachia-- they were fond of him but appear to be seriously drifting at the Congressional level to where they've been at the Presidential level for the past decade. McCain won all of these states in such a bad year by a sizable margin--If current trends keep up-- I'm predicting that the most proportionate Democratic losses will occur here in 2010-- I wouldn't be suprised if Blanche Lincoln is unseated along with as many as 6 of the Democratic House seats from these four states (two Tennessee retirements look to be likely pick-ups for the GOP), along with the governorship of Tennessee.

Meanwhile, in New England the recent trends of the GOP's decimation are well known. Beyond the governorships of Vermont, Rhode Island, and Connecticut (all retiring)--the GOP's Federal Representation in New England consists of Sens. Sue Colllins and Olympia Snowe of Maine, and Judd Gregg (retiring) of New Hampshire. The traditional New England Republican of recent decades-- rock-ribbed fiscal conservative, social moderate, and somewhat hawkish in foreign policy have been the chief GOP whipping-boy for recent Democratic gains--- in 2006 there were 2 GOP reps in New Hampshire, at least 3 in Connecticut, another Senator in New Hampshire, and 10 Republicans in New York State...there are now 2 in New York and the rest of the above are gone. As late as 1996 there were 2 GOP reps in Massachusetts (though the shrinkage of Mass's delegation and gerrymandering have rendered the remaining seats lock-step)

For 2010, the New England states, particularly the smaller ones, may offer a glimpse of whether or not the region is a Republican wasteland for a generation or so--- If Kelly Ayote--the Senate candidate running for Judd Gregg's seat holds onto it, that certainly the top objective--along with any of the open gubernatorial seats. There are opportunities (judging from polling) in the 2 New Hampshire districts and perhaps one or two in Connecticut. Rural New England moderates and conservatives are a fiscally conservative bunch, hence New Hampshire being narrowly won by George W. Bush in 2000, and being picked up by John Kerry by only a few thousand votes in 2004. Vermont, despite it's bloody-minded liberalism on most matters beyond deficits and guns, has somewhat of a demand for good fiscal management-- Screaming Howard was almost notorious among his fellow Democrats during his tenure as governor for being a budgetary hard-ass, which contributed to his general popularity. The Obama adminstration's fiscal policies may aid Republicans in getting back into the game.

There are also 2 Democratic seat Senate races up this term in New England. The first, Chris Dodd's seat in Connecticut I planned to engage in a long digression on his unpopularity and the very good chance that if former Rep. Rob Simmons (about as likeable a Republican as exists for deep blue Connecticut, and an excellent Congressmen who went to the mat for his constitutents to save the New Haven Naval Base, and was unseated by 86 votes in '06.) wins the GOP nomination, he'd unseat Dodd. However, five-term senators are usually unseated by either their own choice or the grave, if it looks like they are in for a very tough fight-- there's a high chance they'll retire rather than risk the humiliation of being thrown out. It seems that within a few hours of Byron Dorgan's retirement (and the extremely high likelihood of that Senate seat flipping Republican) Dodd either chose to call it quits, or was prodded to acknowledge his political prognosis by Dem insiders. With the entry of the very popular Connecticut Attorney General, the deep-blue seat looks relatively likely for a Democratic hold barring an utter unraveling of the party's standing.

The other senate race is in a couple weeks--a Massachusetts special election for the Kennedy Seat. The polls have Republican State Sen. Scott Brown closer than Mass. Senate race should be, this seat's last Republican was Henry Cabot Lodge. Jr in 1952 when he was defeated by yep...you got it...JFK. Martha Coakley, the Democrat, has run a very poor campaign judging from reports, and some members of the Conservative blogosphere are salivating over the faint possibility of an upset...I'm not optimistic for a win of course, but if Scott Brown keeps it within 10 points, that's a very good sign.